According to the Russian news agency TASS, citing the Kremlin, “President Putin supported Trump’s idea of a mutual 30-day renunciation of strikes on energy infrastructure by Russia and Ukraine and has given the order to the military.” In Germany, the Bundestag approved on Tuesday a historic reform of the debt brake and the creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund.
Before dividing Ukraine between them, our friends Trump and Putin exchanged their views. The 30-day truce looks more like a bluffing game than a firm and manly handshake. Why? Because Vladimir Putin has once again set conditions for the truce, including an end to the “rearmament” of Kyiv, according to the Russian presidency. “The Russian side has emphasized several key points regarding the effective control of a potential ceasefire along the entire contact line, the need to end forced mobilization in Ukraine, and the rearmament of the Ukrainian armed forces,” reports the Kremlin in a statement.
Meanwhile
In Germany, the Bundestag approved on Tuesday a historic reform of the debt brake and the creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund, thus putting an end to decades of fiscal conservatism in Germany, which could revive economic growth and support the country’s military spending. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the Confederation’s Expert Group for Economic Forecasts has slightly revised downward its growth projections for the Swiss economy. The GDP, adjusted for sporting events, is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 (compared to 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively, in the December forecasts). Thus, growth is expected to remain below average for another two years. These forecasts are based on the assumption that there will be no escalation into a global trade war. Due to the prevailing high uncertainty, SECO is supplementing the expert group’s forecasts with two alternative scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding international economic and trade policies and their macroeconomic impacts remains particularly high. The current forecasts assume there will be no escalation into a global trade war. However, much more extreme developments remain possible. A negative scenario of international economic slowdown would have significant consequences on Swiss foreign trade and the economy. But in the “maybe yes, maybe no” series, if global demand and the European economy were to evolve more favorably than expected, notably due to a large-scale fiscal stimulus, such as the one currently being pursued by Germany, a positive scenario would boost demand for Swiss exports, driving up domestic economic growth.
What do the markets think?
In Paris, the CAC 40 rose by 0.5% to 8,114.57 points, while the German DAX climbed 1.03% and the British FTSE strengthened by 0.29%. The EuroStoxx 50 index ended the session with a 0.76% increase, while the FTSEurofirst 300 gained 0.56% and the Stoxx 600 added 0.59%. In Switzerland, the SMI closed with a minimal gain of 0.03%. Novartis (-0.2%) was a drag, while Nestlé (+0.3%) supported the index. On the bond side, the French ten-year bond yield reached 3.48% on Tuesday, the same level as the previous day at close. Its German equivalent, the European benchmark, also remained stable at 2.81%.
In the United States, investors are awaiting the Fed’s decision but even more so the comments that will follow. The markets continue their erratic movements, though they are mostly bearish. The “Magnificent 7” are becoming less and less so. Nvidia fell 3.43%, dragging down part of the semiconductor sector, including Broadcom (-3.00%), AMD (-1.00%), and Micron (-1.35%). Alphabet, Google’s parent company, lost 2.34% after announcing a “definitive agreement” to acquire the American cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion. Tesla’s stock plunged 5.34% after RBC lowered its price target for the electric vehicle maker from $320 to $120, citing lower expectations for the pricing of its fully autonomous vehicles and its market share in the robotaxi segment. The stock is now down nearly 44% for the year. In the bond market, U.S. ten-year Treasury yields eased to 4.28%, compared to 4.31% the previous day at close. Notable were new comments from the Trump administration on tariffs, adding further confusion to the current situation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that reciprocal tariffs with China will not automatically be 25% plus 25%, and that President Trump has asked him to rethink the U.S. sanctions regime. He also mentioned that each country will receive a specific tariff figure on April 2, which could be low for some, while 15% of countries will account for the bulk of tariffs, according to Fox Business News. Understand that if you can…
In the commodities sector, metals were all trending lower. The three-month benchmark copper on the LME fell from a five-month high, down 0.1%, while aluminum dropped 0.2%, lead slipped 0.1%, and zinc lost 0.4%. Only nickel was up, gaining 0.5%. Chicago wheat declined, as Russia—the leading grain exporter—agreed to temporarily stop attacking the energy facilities of its rival supplier, Ukraine, even though it refused to approve a full ceasefire. Corn fell for the second session under pressure from expectations of increased planting in the United States this year, while soybeans rose.
Cryptos are suffering. Bitcoin fell 1.82% to $82,472, while Ethereum (-1.42%) and XRP (-3.51%) also declined. However, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $274.6 million, the highest since February 4.
This morning in Asia
Asian stocks were muted on Wednesday, and gold hovered near its highest levels as economic concerns and a shifting geopolitical landscape kept risk appetite in check, while the yen stabilized after the Bank of Japan () kept rates unchanged as expected. The Japanese Nikkei rose 0.69%, staying close to the levels it traded at before the decision. Spot gold held at $3,029.70 per ounce after reaching a record high of $3,038.26 on Tuesday. In contrast, spot silver fell 0.3%, platinum lost 0.5%, and palladium declined 0.7%.
Brent crude futures fell 0.24% to $70.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.2% to $66.75 in early trading.
