Let’s be honest, it’s no surprise. If I’m not mistaken, since the start of the election campaign, now-President Trump had warned that he would impose tariffs with a sledgehammer, just to show the world who’s boss. We knew it, but at the same time, we thought he might start by boosting the economy, cutting taxes, and creating jobs before shaking up global trade. Instead, he did everything out of order, and the realization we’re experiencing promises yet another “DeepSeek” Monday.

Miserable Sunday Night

The weekend ended on a rough note—especially for investors who bought the dip before heading out. This morning’s market open looks grim. Not that the announcement was a shock—we knew for days that Trump was about to make his move. The officially confirmed tariffs were exactly as expected: 25% against Mexico, 25% against Canada (except for oil, so Americans don’t freak out over gas prices), and 10% against China.

Trump’s unpredictability is no secret, so no one can call this a surprise. But judging by the futures market reaction, it seems like investors were in full denial: “He won’t do it, he won’t do it… Oh, damn. He did it.” This is the most significant act of American protectionism in nearly a century, and it’s tearing apart the regional trade pact that has been the foundation of U.S. economic dominance.

Friends or Frenemies?

For decades, American companies thrived on the U.S.-Canada-Mexico economic alliance, leveraging U.S. innovation, Canada’s vast resources, and Mexico’s cheap labor. Sure, it wasn’t perfect—factories closed, industrial towns turned to dust. But Trump saw a winning political strategy:

• Bring the jobs back!
• Fire up the factories like it’s the ‘50s!
• America First!

And so, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN…

Except his master plan is just slapping tariffs on everything, as if that alone could fix unemployment, the national debt, and even the opioid crisis. (Yes, he actually linked tariffs to drug abuse—next-level economic genius.) The problem? Tariffs alone won’t magically bring back American factories, but they will:

• Raise prices on imports (Make Inflation Great Again!)
• Strain geopolitical ties (Punching Canada in the face? Not exactly “best friends” material.)
• Potentially weaken U.S. global competitiveness long-term.

Trump’s tariffs feel like a Hollywood blockbuster—flashy effects, a weak plot, and a hero who thinks he can fix everything with three car chases and a couple of fistfights (probably learned from a Chinese Kung-Fu master before tariffs kicked in). But will the audience—voters—stick around to see how it ends? Or will they leave early, realizing that bringing jobs back home might be as mythical as the Loch Ness monster or Area 51?

Reality Check

That’s all great Monday morning theory. But for investors? We never thought he’d actually pull the trigger. We assumed he’d wave tariffs around like a scarecrow—never actually use them. Yet, here we are. And after last week’s DeepSeek beating—where Nvidia closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in two years—this was the last thing we needed.

And yet… here we go again

When officially announcing the tariffs, Trump posted a message on X that said:

“Will there be pain? Yes, maybe (or maybe not!), but we will make America great again, and the price to pay will be worth it.”

Now, I’m not sure if, this morning, comments like that will reassure market participants, but one thing is certain: today is going to be rough. Futures are set to open sharply lower—down 2% on the S&P 500 and 2.7% on the Nasdaq—while volatility, measured by the VIX index, is expected to skyrocket by 20% at the open. We’re not talking about terror or panic just yet, but suddenly, there’s doubt creeping in about Trump’s strategy—assuming he even has one.

Last night, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has implemented the most STUPID strategy in history, and plenty of experts—including those who actually voted for Trump—are now wondering how this will end. And to be honest, we have no clue how it ends, but we do have an idea of how it starts. Canada has already announced its response—Trudeau is raising tariffs on American goods by 25%. Mexico is “working” on a similar retaliation, and China has yet to respond. And that’s what’s truly frightening.

One thing is clear: the trade war is back. And like all wars, we know where and how it begins, but we never know how it will end.

A Tough Week Off to a Rough Start

We’re kicking off this week under the weight of tariffs, and there’s no choice but to deal with it. And as if that weren’t enough, the days ahead won’t be any easier—an avalanche of quarterly earnings reports could add more fuel to the fire. Plus, at the end of the week, we have January’s employment numbers, which will pile onto the ongoing debate over interest rates and inflation.

Some economists are already raising concerns about the potential fallout. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist even crunched the numbers and concluded that the new tariffs could mechanically push inflation up another 0.5%. Now, I’m no economic expert, but that’s not exactly the kind of move that will help lower interest rates in the U.S. by 2025. And now that Trump has made his move, it’s safe to assume Europe will be the next target. EU leaders are already preparing their counterattack, knowing full well that the hit is coming—they just don’t know when.

Futures are deep in the red, we’re teetering on the edge of panic, and cryptocurrencies—the so-called risk appetite indicator in today’s wonderful world of finance—are getting absolutely wrecked. Asian markets have already set the tone: Japan is down 2.8%, Hong Kong is sliding 1%, and China remains closed for Lunar New Year. Meanwhile, China’s latest manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1—below expectations.

Oil, sensing the chaos, is making another run at $74, gold is sitting at $2,813 an ounce, and as for Bitcoin—let’s just say I’ll spare you the details of its current lovely shade of red. Yet another sure thing that was supposed to soar right after the inauguration.