Don’t give a damn. It’s official. The market no longer gives a damn about tariffs. For now, indices around the world are signaling that “everyone understands this is a weapon of mass negotiation” and that as long as there are no real implementations and we can’t measure the economic impact, we’ll keep buying the rest of the market. The “threats to tax everyone” from Friday night sent a chill over the weekend, but we made up for it on Monday as if the import tariffs on metals were just a bluff. A bluff that Trump still went ahead and signed into effect as executive orders last night.
Not Selling
The market finds itself in a very strange situation. We know that the President wants to assert his power over the rest of the world and “make America great again.” To do so, he first has to clash with allies, and these disputes could lead to trade wars—never good for economies. These wars could trigger inflation spikes and fears of declining consumer spending. Yet despite these concerns and the fact that we know Trump is completely unpredictable, capable of doing anything at any moment, the market keeps buying as long as there’s no CONCRETE action.
That’s essentially the message the market is sending: “Dear President, you want to raise tariffs left and right and pick fights with everyone? We’re fine with that!” Even though deep down, we’d also like to say, “Go on, I dare you!”
And so, as long as there are no REAL tariffs being enforced (apparently, the 10% against China doesn’t count in Wall Street’s mind), buyers refuse to give up on the rally. They see an opportunity to scoop up tech and AI stocks if the current bullish wave continues. Monday’s gains weren’t sky-high, but once again, investors turned their attention to AI and the Magnificent Seven—because when you don’t know what to buy, you might as well grab the biggest names that, at worst, will form the foundations of the future World Company.
Yes, the gains weren’t spectacular, but everything was in the green—except Tesla. Meanwhile, Nvidia kept climbing, adding another 3% for the sixth consecutive session. And we have to mention Meta, which gained just 0.4%—not exactly mind-blowing—but it marked its 16th straight session of gains! I don’t have the stats on hand, but even ChatGPT couldn’t find another company that’s strung together 16 sessions of consecutive gains. Not even Nvidia.
Trump’s Tactics No Longer Scare Anyone—Until They Do
If we needed more proof of the market’s bipolar nature, just look at the commentary. Before the close, markets were rising, and analysts were calm, saying tariffs were just a negotiation tool. But right after the close, when news broke that Trump had actually signed off on those tariffs, futures immediately gave up half the day’s gains.
Stuck in Concrete
In short, we know what we’re doing, we’re confident in many things—but that confidence is fragile and could vanish in an instant. As I write this, futures are down 0.3%—for whatever that’s worth at 5 AM Geneva time. One thing is clear—just look at the charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100—markets are stuck in a period of uncertainty.
We know valuations aren’t cheap. We know the Fed will be calling the shots in the coming weeks. We know Wednesday’s inflation data could be a key factor in guiding the Fed’s next moves. But until things become clearer, investors are hesitant to push the market higher. Because let’s be honest—if we break through all-time highs on the S&P 500, we’re launching into a new bullish wave that could blow the roof off.
For Now, No Clear Direction
At the moment, it’s clear that we’re struggling to tip definitively to one side or the other. The final decision date doesn’t seem too far off, but pinpointing it on the calendar isn’t easy. So for now, we’re living day by day—or rather, from one Trump statement to the next—waiting for news that might show us the way. Maybe it will come in the form of tomorrow’s CPI report or Nvidia’s earnings in 15 days. Who knows?
Last Friday, we saw that economic figures have very little impact at the moment. The words and declarations of the White House resident carry too much weight, and we never know how things will end. If they ever do.
Europe
In Europe, we’re in the same mood, with two additional factors:
- Factor one: European stock valuations are lower, meaning we can play the “catch-up effect.”
- Factor two: The AI Summit in Paris, featuring the fabulous, exuberant, excellent—no, let’s say the EXTRAORDINARY Emmanuel Macron, President of all French people, acting as a top-tier salesman.
And since artificial intelligence is undeniably cool, it’s even cooler when Europe hosts big events and looks stronger than others. So, we might as well ride the wave, push for 8,000 on the CAC, and close at record highs on the DAX.
Simply put, for now, Europe is surfing the momentum. Since no one dares—or really wants—to sell, and since quarterly earnings aren’t bad, we’ll keep going with the flow for a little while longer.
Rest of the World
As for the rest of the world, Asian indices are practically doing nothing this morning, as if they’re waiting to gauge the perception of tariffs before taking any risks. Even if we think we “understand everything,” there’s always a chance of an uncontrolled slip-up due to a sudden reinterpretation of what we thought we knew.
You follow? No? Because even I got lost there.
Anyway, Asia is in wait-and-see mode. Gold is at $2,944, heading toward $3,000, and oil is at $72.55, because oil always rises when geopolitical tensions start looming on the horizon.
As for risk appetite, Bitcoin is doing nothing, hovering around $97,700, much like the markets—stuck in relative stagnation, waiting for the fog to lift and the sun to shine again.
Today’s Market Stories
To be perfectly honest, if we focus solely on the indices, there’s nothing but sheer boredom. Much like the SOX over the past eight months, the market is struggling to find direction. However, on an individual stock level, things are moving quite a bit. So, for the second half of this market update, let’s dive into rumors, gossip, and the freshest news.
Enjoy Your meal!
First up, McDonald’s reported its quarterly earnings. To keep it simple, everything came in below expectations—except for one number that stood out: sales grew by 0.4%, while “experts” had predicted a 1.1% decline. The stock still jumped 4.8%, as investors chose to focus on that one positive metric. Apparently, fine diners are heading back to McDonald’s more frequently, which could be good news—or bad news, depending on how you see it. It might mean people can’t afford to eat elsewhere. But for now, the market preferred the “glass half full” perspective.
Not Everyone Lost Out
Then, there’s the ongoing talk about tariffs on aluminum and steel, which, surprisingly, isn’t necessarily bad news. U.S. producers now face less competition from foreign companies hit with these tariffs, which should boost their year-end bonuses. As a result:
- Nucor jumped 5.6%
- United States Steel gained 4.8%
- Steel Dynamics climbed 4.9%
- Cleveland-Cliffs skyrocketed 18%
- Alcoa made a more modest move, up 2.2%
AI Magic!
Now, let’s talk about the unstoppable AI frenzy.
First up, Super Micro surged another 17% last night, bringing its total gain to 60% since February 3rd. But tonight, they’ll release their business update and quarterly earnings. Remember the drama a few months ago when SMCI’s auditor resigned amid rumors of sketchy management practices? We’ll find out more soon. Given how the stock is behaving, one has to wonder if some investors are better informed than others—or if short sellers are scrambling to cover. Either way, tonight could be spectacular!
Still in the AI sector, Monday.com jumped a staggering 26% after posting an adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, crushing analyst expectations of $0.79. The company also announced that its AI-powered business management tool has exited its beta phase and is now available to all clients. And yes, it’s the “AI” in that sentence that pushed the stock up 26%. Since January 15th, the stock has gained 51%.
AI truly is magical—no wonder no one dares to short SMCI tonight!
Less Funny
Wall Street had a rough day, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.5%, tech stocks tanking, and the 10-year Treasury yield creeping dangerously close to 5%. People are now wondering if we’ll see it break above that threshold soon. The only ones who seemed happy were oil traders, as crude oil rebounded sharply. The rest of the market, though, was in a lousy mood.
At ON Semiconductor, they missed the quarter, underperformed expectations, and published a forecast bleak enough to make you sign up for therapy. The stock plunged more than 8%.
Semtech, another semiconductor company, downgraded its 2026 (!) outlook. The stock took a hit, dropping 31%.
And since we’re talking about declines, Tesla lost another 3%, with more and more people starting to wonder if Elon Musk himself is becoming a problem for the company. Sales in China are down 11.5%, and to top it off, some Tesla owners went on TV declaring that they “hate” Musk and will be getting rid of their vehicles because of him. Whether this is what’s dragging the stock down or if it’s even keeping Musk up at night is uncertain, but one thing is clear—he’s getting bad press these days.
If It’s Not Trump, It’s Musk
Lately, the media has been all about Trump, but in the past few days, the world’s richest man has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Between the mess he’s stirring up in US AID’s accounts, his issues with the U.S. Treasury, or his Nazi salute the other day, people are now wondering if he ever sleeps—just like they do with Trump.
His latest drama? A public feud with French billionaire Xavier Niel, who called him a “jerk.” In response, Musk launched a full-on smear campaign, calling Niel a “pimp.” Clearly, the billionaire world is soaring to new intellectual heights.
But wait, there’s more.
Yesterday, Musk led an investor group in a bid to acquire the company controlling OpenAI for $97.4 billion.
Here’s some context: Musk and Sam Altman were originally co-founders of OpenAI, with the idea of building an AI entity focused on humanity’s well-being rather than profit. Now that OpenAI has veered in a very different direction, Musk wants to take over the majority stake, effectively gaining control over his own AI competitor.
The problem? Musk and Altman despise each other.
Altman responded on X (formerly Twitter):
“No thanks, but we’ll buy Twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.”
Musk fired back, calling him “Scam Altman” and adding, in a more official tone: “It’s time for OpenAI to return to its open-source, safety-focused roots. We will make sure that happens.”
Key Takeaways:
- Sam Altman is clearly all about the money now and has long abandoned OpenAI’s original mission.
- The AI war is fully on, and it’s only going to escalate from here.
- $100 billion might not even be enough to buy OpenAI anymore, considering its last funding round valued the company at over $300 billion.
- And finally, Musk probably never sleeps—and if he ever dines with Altman, it might be at a Japanese restaurant serving fugu, with strict instructions for the chef to mess up the recipe.
For the Rest of the News
Otherwise, we learn that Merck (the German one) is in talks to acquire the biotech SpringWorks Therapeutics, which specializes in cancer and rare disease treatments. SpringWorks hasn’t confirmed or denied anything, but its stock still jumped 34% just in case.
We should also note that GameStop gained 10% last night because someone found a photo of the GameStop CEO with the Strategy CEO, Michael Saylor, and people immediately started speculating—mainly on Reddit—that maybe GameStop was going to do something with Bitcoin like Strategy. Now that is some real fundamental analysis.
There’s also Trump, who has “ordered” Hamas to release all remaining hostages by noon on Saturday, or else he promises them hell. He also added that he’s not sure if there are enough virgins for everyone over there.
And let’s not forget the ongoing standoff between France and the U.S.—the French Economy Minister, whose name no one knows (but it doesn’t matter because he won’t be around for long), has refused to scrap the digital tax that Trump doesn’t like. Macron has warned Trump that he won’t back down, and apparently, the American President is now terrified and can’t sleep anymore. It’s true that the French President is physically intimidating—especially since he started boxing on Instagram.
For Today
There won’t be any economic data releases today, but Powell is set to speak. As for earnings reports, we’ll have Coca-Cola, Shopify, SuperMicro, DoorDash, BP, Lyft, Gilead, Kering.
I’ll wrap up this column with two things:
First, I’d like to issue a CORRECTION: yesterday, I made fun of French finances by saying that the €109 billion invested in France was a lot compared to the national education budget. Turns out, that €109 billion is private money, so my comment made no sense. I thought about sending an apology note to Macron, but then I saw his speech where he said, “PLUG, BABY, PLUG” (about electricity), and I figured he was busy enough with his one-man show. I didn’t want to disturb him while he was plugging the world.
Second, tonight, there’s a WEBINAR at Swissquote—guess what the topic is? Yep, Artificial Intelligence! You can sign up HERE. It starts at 6:00 PM, lasts an hour, and it’s free. Marco and I will be happy to welcome you for this special event!
I think that’s all for this morning. Have a great day, and see you tomorrow!
