Last Friday, the market was rising because we expected the “Customs Tariffs” to not be so bad. Last Monday, the market was rising because we expected the “Customs Tariffs” to not be so bad. This Tuesday again, the market was rising because we expected the “Customs Tariffs” to not be so bad. And yesterday, we took a monumental hit because Trump made an announcement about “Customs Tariffs” on cars. And at that moment, we realized that, in fact, YES, it could be much worse than we thought. But to be honest, we have no idea—uncertainty is back, and so is the MUPPET SHOW!
I’m going to be super blunt with you: right now, I think we’re bordering on “COMPLETE NONSENSE” but in “Champions League” mode. We’re at a very, very high level, and to top it off, all the players are on the same team. Market participants have completely lost the concept of “taking a step back.” Yesterday, I attended a conference where we tried to explain to “young investors” that they should take a step back and “zoom out” from the momentary market fluctuations to avoid making rash decisions. And yet, yesterday, the markets did—once again—exactly what we keep trying to teach new investors not to do.
Sure, the uncertainty we’re experiencing in the markets isn’t pleasant, especially since we feel like Trump is experimenting on us just to see how we’ll react! But sometimes, you really have to wonder if we could take just a little bit of perspective and think for more than 12 seconds.
You see, it’s like a guy sitting in a huge armchair on top of a mountain overlooking the financial markets. Next to him, JD Vance sits on a stool, and Trump says to him:
“You see, JD, let’s tell them we’re going to raise tariffs on Canadian imports just to see how those idiots react!”
And then Trump raises tariffs on Canada, and the market plunges into panic mode. Within the next 24 hours, the kind President climbs back up the mountain, sits in his armchair with his obedient Vice President, and announces that, actually, he won’t REALLY enforce these tariffs, and the market rebounds. Ever since, the kind President has been having fun running experiments, testing how these fools in the financial markets will react. Given that it took them six weeks to admit that tariff implementations could impact inflation—of course, driving it UP—Trump figured there were still plenty of psychological tests he could use to toy with the wonderful world of finance.
The Noise
By now, you would think we might have learned something and started reacting differently. Maybe we would have stopped listening so closely to the ramblings of an American President whose main characteristic is his uncanny ability to change his mind faster and more effectively than the financial markets have for the past 25 years! But no, instead, like a herd of sheep, we eagerly listen to whatever nonsense Trump spouts so we can immediately run in the direction he points—only for him to change his mind three days later, saying, “Actually, the ‘Customs Tariffs’ won’t be so bad after all!” A statement based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, obviously.
Over the past few days, the three consecutive days of market gains were driven primarily by the hope that Trump might, just maybe, be merciful—that he was our friend and that everything would turn out fine! BUT NO, NOT AT ALL! He is not our friend. Yesterday, he climbed back up his mountain and thought to himself:
— “Hmm, let’s hit them with auto import tariffs. I’ll be super aggressive and spew absolute nonsense just to see how these idiots react!”
And he wasn’t disappointed. The markets tanked because we realized that if he is capable of taxing imported cars at 25%, then he is capable of absolutely anything between now and the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2. Since yesterday, the President has once again stoked the flames of uncertainty—uncertainty we had almost started to forget about. And let’s not even get into the content of his speech, because I sincerely believe an eight-year-old child could dismantle his argument.
Unreal
It’s early this morning, and this column isn’t meant to dive too deep into everything that was said on Wall Street last night. My job is to help you digest the monstrous mess that happened in the finance world—and, if possible, to make you laugh on your way to work. Otherwise, this column would last three hours, and you’d have to take detours just to get through it.
That said, I do have to go back to Trump’s speech from last night.
To put it simply, the guy announces that every car or car part imported into the U.S. will be taxed at 25%. Boom! Then, after making a gigantic middle finger gesture to foreign automakers, he turns to Americans and explains that this will be “great” because all the car factories that will open in the States to avoid tariffs will create jobs and ensure that everyone works in the automobile industry.
Desire and Time
OK. First of all, he didn’t ask people if they WANTED to work in the automobile industry. But more importantly, he seems to assume that Renault, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, and all the rest will arrive in Detroit next week to build factories and hire millions of people. He hasn’t considered for ONE SECOND that moving part of their production to the U.S. takes time, and even if the decision was made yesterday, those factories wouldn’t be operational until AFTER Trump’s presidency ends.
Not to mention that, knowing the intellectual volatility of the President, the first question an automaker will ask is:
“How long is he actually going to stick to these tariffs, anyway?”
Because Trump isn’t known for setting things in stone. He’s more about writing in sand with watercolors—one gust of wind or a bit of rain, and it’s back to square one. Yesterday, we realized that we had spent four days rallying for no reason, based on the wild theory that, perhaps, Trump would “play it cool” with tariffs. And not just “cool”—but COOOOOL, with four “O’s,” because he was going to be SO nice to us. And this morning, we’re all looking at each other thinking, “Damn, and we’re only talking about cars…”
And That Wasn’t All
Yesterday, the stock markets were in the red again. Once more, we completely forgot about long-term investing and wasted a massive amount of energy. If we could somehow capture all the air turbulence generated by Wall Street’s overreactions, we could shut down every nuclear power plant in the world while still powering all AI servers for the next five years.
We talked a lot about cars, but let’s not forget that another sector took a massive hit due to the government’s ridiculous regulations: SEMICONDUCTORS!
We won’t dwell too much on this, but let’s just say that when it comes to semiconductors, we are now fully embracing the old saying: “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” In other words, if you slap me on my right cheek, don’t expect me to turn the other cheek—I’m not a practicing saint! But let’s get back to semiconductors…
We’re not going to dwell too much on the subject, but let’s just say that when it comes to semiconductors, we’re currently applying and understanding the meaning of the phrase: “C’est la réponse du berger à la bergère.” In other words, if you slap me on the right cheek, don’t necessarily expect me to offer you the left one—not everyone is a devout and practicing Catholic!
But back to the topic of semiconductors: you’ve all heard that the U.S. government has more or less banned certain exports to China in an effort to throw a wrench in their plans and slow them down in the AI race. In the process, they also blacklisted a whole range of Chinese tech companies.
At this point, China hasn’t YET retaliated, but market players are starting to say that when they do, it won’t be pretty—and it could have an impact on the sales of companies like Nvidia. As a result, the entire sector took a hit, with no exceptions, leading the SOX index to drop by more than 3% and Nvidia to plunge nearly 6%.
Summary
On one side, tariffs are making a grand comeback in the tortured psyche of investors. Concerns are growing over Sino-American trade relations, which could quickly deteriorate and impact semiconductors. On top of that, the uncertainty that was already weighing on our minds has made a dramatic return, trampling over the fragile confidence we were trying to rebuild. And when you see how hyperactive Trump is right now, you realize that April 2nd is still far away, and that this clown is capable of pulling just about anything out of his hat. Especially since, at the moment, our ability for logical and rational thinking has been replaced by the brains of Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy. Meanwhile, I feel like one of those two old men constantly grumbling in the balcony above the stage.
Conclusion
Uncertainty is back, and geographically, we’re in the same place as we were a week ago—knowing that Trump could go completely off the rails at any second in any direction. This morning in Asia, the Nikkei is leading the losses, down 1%—understandable given its heavy concentration in tech and automobiles. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong seem to care as much about Trump’s antics as they do about last century’s news. The Hang Seng is up 1.4%, and China is rising by 0.3%. Over there, it seems like Trump is just another TV show that always ends well, so they’ve stopped paying attention to him—something we are incapable of doing. If you spend some time on X, you’ll notice that in France, for example, more time is spent talking about how insane Trump is than asking why their own Prime Minister is a brainless mollusk. Trump is the center of the world—everywhere except Hong Kong and China.
Oil is holding steady around $70, just slightly below, gold is at $3,070, and Bitcoin is at $87,500. At least things are calm on that front. As for today’s news, all eyes remain on the statements and off-the-cuff remarks coming out of the White House—there’s hardly room for anything else. However, an anonymous source has reported that OpenAI is expected to generate $12.7 billion in revenue this year. The question remains whether that justifies a valuation of nearly $260 billion, which, by the way, was backed by SoftBank’s latest funding round. Meanwhile, Macron has somehow found an extra €2 billion to send to Ukraine. Honestly, I have no idea where he’s pulling all this money from, but if he had put half as much effort into fixing France as he has into sinking funds into Ukraine, France would be in the process of buying out Germany and Silicon Valley in cash.
Today’s Numbers
As for the rest, today we have U.S. GDP data and Jobless Claims, but everyone is really waiting for tomorrow’s inflation numbers. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are dominating discussions, and the narrative has completely changed since Monday morning. We’ve gone from “We expected the tariffs not to be that bad” to “Oh sh*t, what is he going to do now?” But let’s not worry too much—given the market’s current level of rationality, we wouldn’t be surprised by yet another complete reversal in the hours to come. One thing is certain: we are in the middle of a full-fledged financial Muppet Show, and even Netflix writers wouldn’t dare come up with plot twists this fast and frequent. Trump has taken us into a whole new dimension…
For those interested—and no, this is not a joke—next week, on April 1st, in collaboration with the Investment Society Lausanne and Swissquote, I will have the pleasure of hosting a conference titled “Analysis of Financial Markets and Current Trends”. Needless to say, there will be plenty to discuss. The conference will take place at Amphipole C at the University of Lausanne, from 5:00 PM until the end of the aperitif.
Until then, have a great day anyway! I’ll get back to my role as the grumpy old man from The Muppet Show, and I’ll see you tomorrow to wrap up the week!
